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Solar module prices in the United States are expected to increase through 2027 as policy uncertainty and new tariffs reshape the market, according to a new report by Intertek CEA.

The firm’s latest market intelligence highlights the potential impact of multiple trade measures, including anticipated Section 232 tariffs under the U.S. Department of Commerce investigation into polysilicon imports. These tariffs, alongside existing duties such as Solar AD/CVD measures, are expected to significantly raise costs for imported solar components.

Under a base-case scenario, Intertek CEA forecasts tariffs of $10/kg on polysilicon, alongside additional levies on wafers, cells, and finished modules. Module tariffs alone could reach 20 cents per watt, potentially making imports uneconomical for many U.S. buyers.

Despite rising costs, the report points to growing domestic manufacturing capacity. U.S. solar module production reached approximately 45 GW annually by the end of 2025, enough to meet last year’s installation demand. Capacity is projected to expand to 60 GW in 2026, with further growth expected into 2027.

However, constraints in domestic solar cell production may limit supply in the near term, as several planned facilities face delays.

The report also notes that domestically produced TOPCon modules benefiting from Section 45X incentives remain competitive for now. However, prices could rise if imports decline sharply due to tariffs.

While final details of the Section 232 tariffs are expected later this year, the analysis suggests a shift toward domestic sourcing, with cost implications for developers and buyers across the U.S. solar sector.

Source: pv-magazine-usa.com