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The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) forecasts a 24% increase in peak electricity demand over 2025 levels due to the rapid growth of data centers and other new loads, according to its 2026 Long Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA). Summer peak demand is expected to rise by 224 GW over the next decade, while winter demand could grow by 246 GW.

Several regions face heightened risk of insufficient reserves, including MISO, PJM, ERCOT, and parts of the Pacific Northwest. John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessments, said, “The system is changing faster than the infrastructure needed to support it,” highlighting unprecedented uncertainty in future electricity supply.

From 2024 to 2025, fossil-fueled capacity fell by 21 GW, while solar, wind, and battery resources added 23 GW. NERC noted that delays in connecting new resources and unexpected retirements have caused capacity shortfalls. Solar and battery projects now account for two-thirds of projected 10-year Tier 1 and Tier 2 resource additions.

Industry groups emphasize faster resource deployment and maintaining existing plants. Caitlin Marquis of Advanced Energy United called for reducing permitting barriers for solar, storage, and demand-side resources. Todd Snitchler of EPSA highlighted the role of market signals in reliability, while Michelle Bloodworth of America’s Power warned that coal plant retirements threaten grid stability in high-risk regions.

The report underscores the urgency of aligning electricity infrastructure with rapidly rising demand, particularly as emerging technologies and changing generation mixes reshape the grid.

Source: utilitydive.com