The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that residential electricity bills will average $173 per month this summer (June through August), up slightly from last summer’s average of $168. This increase is primarily attributed to higher electricity consumption driven by warmer summer temperatures, although this will be partially offset by lower residential electricity prices in many regions.

Summer Electricity Consumption Influenced by Weather

Electricity consumption during summer heavily depends on the weather. Nearly 90% of U.S. households use air conditioning, leading to higher electricity usage in the summer, especially in the southern states along the Gulf Coast. In contrast, states with milder climates along the Pacific Coast and in New England tend to use less electricity for cooling.

Increase in Cooling Degree Days

Cooling degree days, which measure the need for air conditioning, are expected to increase by 5% this summer, leading to an estimated 3% rise in electricity use compared to last year. Despite this, energy efficiency improvements in air-conditioning equipment have resulted in a 6% reduction in average summer electricity use per household compared to 2010, even with similar summer temperatures.

Electricity Generation Costs Decline, but Transmission and Distribution Costs Rise

The average residential retail electricity price in the U.S. is forecasted to remain at 16 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) this summer, similar to last year. While generation costs have decreased due to falling natural gas prices and increased renewable energy sources, transmission and distribution costs have risen as companies invest in new infrastructure. These costs are a significant factor in retail electricity price increases.

Regional Variations in Electricity Prices

Residential electricity prices are expected to remain similar to last summer across most of the U.S., except for the Pacific Coast and New England. The Pacific Coast will likely see a 7% increase in electricity prices, bringing the average price to 25 cents/kWh, the second highest in the nation. In contrast, New England is expected to experience a 7% decrease in electricity prices, averaging 26 cents/kWh, the highest in the nation, due to declining natural gas and wholesale power prices.

Impact on Summer Electricity Bills

The impact of changing electricity usage patterns and prices will vary by region. Residential customers in the Middle Atlantic states (New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania) are expected to see the largest increase in summer bills, up by $14 per month. In the Pacific region, bills are expected to rise by an average of $11 per month due to higher prices. In New England, typical electricity bills should remain about the same as last summer, with increased usage offset by lower prices.

Source: eia.gov