Winter brings a chilling challenge for Ukraine as it grapples with a fragile power grid still reeling from Russian attacks last year. Concerns are mounting that Russia may resume large-scale assaults, plunging Ukrainians into cold and darkness once again. Interviews with experts reveal power plants struggling with unfinished repairs, shortages of critical equipment like transformers, and a scarcity of spare equipment. The situation appears particularly grim for thermal power plants, crucial components of Ukraine's energy mix.

While Ukraine has bolstered air defenses and fortified critical energy facilities, the power grid's vulnerabilities persist. Recent drone assaults on the grid have been noted, indicating potential threats. Last winter, over 1,200 missiles and drones damaged nearly half of Ukraine's power grid, leaving an $8.8 billion scar. Repair efforts, while ongoing, face challenges in finding transformers, with some strategically stored outside Ukraine's borders to avoid targeting.

As temperatures drop and snow falls across the country, concerns grow over the ability of the power grid to withstand another assault. The repair progress since a United Nations report in the summer appears limited, leaving doubts about meeting winter demand. Analysts estimate potential electricity deficits, even without new attacks, raising fears of rolling blackouts. The effectiveness of newly implemented air defenses and fortifications remains untested, adding uncertainty to Ukraine's energy future.

Despite increased preparations, including the use of Western-supplied Patriot missiles and fortified facilities, the outcome remains uncertain. The power grid's vulnerability, combined with the challenges in repair work, emphasizes the delicate balance Ukraine must maintain to ensure a steady power supply through the winter.

Source: nytimes.com