U.S. electricity generation is expected to grow steadily over the next two years, driven primarily by rapid expansion of solar power, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Total electricity generation reached about 4,260 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2025 and is forecast to increase by 1.1% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, reaching 4,423 BkWh. While natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy accounted for roughly 75% of U.S. generation in 2025, their combined share is expected to fall to around 72% by 2027 as renewable output rises.

Utility-scale solar is projected to be the fastest-growing generation source, increasing from 290 BkWh in 2025 to 424 BkWh in 2027. Nearly 70 gigawatts of new solar capacity are scheduled to come online during that period, representing a 49% increase in operating solar capacity compared with the end of 2025.

Much of this growth is concentrated in Texas, where the grid managed by ERCOT is expected to see solar generation nearly double by 2027. Expansion of battery storage capacity is expected to support increased solar output, particularly during periods of variable generation.

Meanwhile, wind power growth is slowing in regions such as the Midwest, where MISO expects relatively flat wind generation through 2027. Natural gas remains the largest electricity source nationally, though its share continues to decline, while coal-fired generation is projected to fall due to plant retirements and policy factors.

The outlook was prepared by Tyler Hodge and Katherine Antonio of the EIA.

Source: eia.gov